Astrological Discussions

SPOTLIGHT: World affairs

Analysis: Vajpayee and 1998 Indian Elections
Feb 18, 1998

© Narasimha P.V.R. Rao. You may not reproduce this article without written permission from author.
 

Introduction

During Feb-Mar, 1998, world's largest democracy, India, goes thru elections for the lower house of its Parliament. India's Hindu nationalist party BJP has quickly risen to a position of importance in Indian politics over the last decade. In 1998 elections, BJP is projecting Atal Behari Vajpayee, seen widely as the moderate face of a fanatic and fundamentalist party and as a capable, sincere and honest administrator, as its prime ministerial candidate, while no other party could project a candidate before elections. Various opinion polls conducted by various private organizations have indicated that BJP will be the single largest party but it will not be able to form a government on its own. The opinion polls have predicted a hung parliament. India has 7 national political parties and, in a hung parliament scenario, there were doubts that everyone would gang up to keep BJP at bay, as in 1996. The issue we will examine now is: Will Vajpayee become India's next PM in March/April, 1998?

Transits and India's Independence Chart

At the time of elections, Jupiter and Ketu will be in the 10th house in India's independence chart (August 15, 1947, 12:00 Midnight, New Delhi, India). Ketu and Jupiter signify religion and spirituality and the house occupied by them in transit, Aquarius, also has similar significations. In mundane astrology, 10th house stands for ruler, king and ruling party. So it is likely that a party such as BJP (with perceived religious inclinations) will get power during this time!

Vajpayee's Chart

However, chart of Vajpayee must provide more conclusive arguments. His birthdata (thanks to Prafulla Gang):

With this data, his Rasi chart is:

Glossary: Ravi: Sun, Chan: Moon, Kuja: Mars, Budh: Mercury, Guru: Jupiter, Sukr: Venus, Sani: Saturn, Lagn: Ascendant, KL: Karakamsa Lagna, Paranthesis: Retrogression.

+-------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                |                |                |                |
|                |                |                |                |
|      Kuja      |                |                |                |
|                |                |                |                |
|                |                |                |                |
|----------------|---------------------------------|----------------|
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |      Rahu      |
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|----------------|             R A S I             |----------------|
|                |                                 |                |
|   KL           |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|          Ketu  |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|----------------|---------------------------------|----------------|
|  Guru          |  Sukr          |                |                |
|                |                |                |                |
|      Ravi      |      Lagn      |      Sani      |                |
|                |                |                |                |
|         (Budh) |          Chan  |                |                |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------+

His second house has Mercury, Sun and Jupiter and it makes very good sense that he is a fluent and witty orator of great caliber. Venus and Moon in Lagna in Rasi chart and Venus in Lagna in Libra (i.e., in own house) in Navamsa Chart (D-9) explains his poetic instincts. Mars is 7th lord in Navamsa chart from Lagna and Venus and he afflicts Venus and it can explain the fact that he is a bachelor. Sun is 10th lord in Rasi chart. In Dasamsa chart (D-10), he owns 10th again and occupies 5th, while Moon, Jupiter and Mars aspect 10th from 4th. This explains his political career. In his Saptamsa chart (D-7), Lagna lord Moon is in 4th, Jupiter (significator of children) is in 8th and Mars occupies own house, 5th. This explains lack of progeny. It is likely that Lagna in Rasi, Navamsa, Saptamsa and Dasamsa charts is accurate.

However, to be more confident of birthdata's accuracy, let us take his rise and fall in 1996 (his 13-day tenure as India's prime minister) and examine them using Tajaka system solar return charts.

Monthly Chart of His 'Rise' in 1996

Let us look at his Apr-May 1996 Tajaka masa chakra (monthly chart). New month started when transit Sun was in Aries at the same degrees, minutes and seconds as natal Sun was at in Sg.

You can draw the chart for this and evaluate sahams, yogas and dasas, but let give Rasi chart:

Refer to the previous glossary. In addition, Munt: Muntha (annual progressed ascendant)

+-------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                |                |                |                |
|   KL     Sani  |                |  Budh          |                |
|                |      Ravi      |                |      Chan      |
|  Ketu    Kuja  |                |          Sukr  |                |
|                |                |                |                |
|----------------|---------------------------------|----------------|
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|----------------|             R A S I             |----------------|
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|      Lagn      |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|----------------|---------------------------------|----------------|
|                |                |                |                |
|                |                |                |                |
|      Guru      |                |      Munt      |      Rahu      |
|                |                |                |                |
|                |                |                |                |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------+

Muntha is very important in Tajaka charts. Notice that it is in 10th here. Its lord Venus is in own house in a trine. Rajya saham is within 5 deg from Lagna lord Saturn, who aspects Lagna closely (using Tajaka aspects). Lord of rajya saham is Jupiter and he occupies own house. Jupiter and Venus have a benefic yoga (nakta yoga). Significator of rajya (kingdom), Sun, is exalted and aspects the cusp of the 10th house closely and also aspects Muntha. (However, he owns 8th and as the 8th lord aspecting muntha in 10th, he must give career related pressures and tension.).

We have noticed above that Jupiter (rajya saham lord) and Venus (10th lord) are yogakarakas. Vajpayee ran Venus dasa (based on MasaPatyayini dasa system) during May 12-18, 1996. He ran Jupiter's MasaVimsottari dasa during May 13-17, 1996. He ran Jupiter's MasaYogini dasa during May 16-18, 1996. It was on May 16, 1996 that he took oath as India's prime minister!!!

Monthly Chart of His 'Fall' in 1996

Now let us look at May 25-June 25, 1996, when he fell from power. New month started when transit Sun was in Taurus at the same degrees, minutes and seconds as natal Sun was at in Sg.

You can draw all charts, compute sahams, yogas and dasas, but let me give Rasi chart. Refer to previous glossaries.

+-------------------------------------------------------------------+
|  Lagn          |                |                |                |
|                |  Kuja          |                |                |
|      Sani      |                |      Ravi      |     (Sukr)     |
|                |         (Budh) |                |                |
|          Ketu  |                |                |                |
|----------------|---------------------------------|----------------|
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|----------------|             R A S I             |----------------|
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |      Chan      |
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|----------------|---------------------------------|----------------|
|                |                |                |                |
|                |                |                |                |
|     (Guru)     |       KL       |      Munt      |      Rahu      |
|                |                |                |                |
|                |                |                |                |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------+
 
Muntha falls in 8th, which is indicative of bad happenings in this month. Its lord afflicts rajya saham (significant point in the zodiac for kingdom) within a couple of degrees! This suggests losing kingdom.

Lagna is afflicted by Saturn and nodes. Lagna and 10th lord Jupiter and rajya saham lord Mercury are both retrograde and take part in a bad yoga. Venus who afflicts rajya saham is not only the 8th lord from Lagna, but he is also the 8th lord from Muntha.

Interestingly, he ran Venus's MasaPayayini dasa during May 27-29, 1996 and Venus's MasaVimsottari dasa during May 28-June 3, 1996. It may be recalled that Vajpayee's days old minority government lost a vote of confidence on May 28, 1996!!!

His Annual Chart for 1997-98

With the above analysis, we can be reasonably confident that the birthtime we have is pretty accurate (though, ideally, we should have analyzed 3-4 more events like this). Let us accept this birthdata now and look at 'future'.

Vajpayee's new year data for 1997-98 is given below.

You may draw all charts and compute sahams, yogas and dasas, but let me just give the Rasi chart:

+-------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                |                |                |                |
|                |                |                |                |
|      Sani      |                |                |                |
|                |                |                |                |
|                |                |                |                |
|----------------|---------------------------------|----------------|
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|      Ketu      |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |                |
|----------------|             R A S I             |----------------|
|  Sukr          |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |  Lagn          |
|      Kuja      |                                 |                |
|                |                                 |          Rahu  |
|          Guru  |                                 |                |
|----------------|---------------------------------|----------------|
|                |                |                |                |
|  Ravi          |                |                |                |
|                |     (Budh)     |      Chan      |       KL       |
|          Munt  |                |                |                |
|                |                |                |                |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------+

Muntha is in a trine (5th) and Lagna lord (and significator of kingdom!) Sun is within 2 deg from Muntha. This is a very good factor. In addition, rajya saham falls in Taurus, 10th house! Its lord Venus is afflicted by Mars, but he has a very very powerful poorna ithasala yoga (a good yoga) with Lagna lord (and significator of kingdom) Sun, within 1 minute!!! In Dasamsa chart (D-10) also, Sun aspects 10th and Venus occupies Lagna, in opposition to its lord Jupiter. So, primarily Venus and secondarily Sun acquire a great power to confer power on him this year! Moreover, Sun is the lord of the year.

MasaPatyayini Dasa: Venus: Dec 25, 1997-May 10, 1998.
MasaVimsottari Dasa: Venus: Jan 4-Mar 6, 1998; Sun: Mar 6- Mar 24, 1998.
MasaYogini Dasa: Venus: Jan 24-Apr 5, 1998

It is certainly most interesting that Venus's dasa runs as per 3 annual dasa systems at the time election results will be declared. To recap, Venus owns rajya saham and 10th and has a highly powerful benefic yoga with the significator of kingdom Sun, who happens to own Lagna and be within 2 deg from muntha in a trine. Moreover, Venus is powerful as per Tajaka pancha vargeeya bala.

Looking at all these factors, I must say that it is extremely likely that Atal Behari Vajpayee will become India's prime minister again, in March 1998.

Transits

Jupiter and 10th lord (in his natal chart) Sun will aspect 10th (from natal Lagna and natal Moon) in transit in early March. Jupiter will exactly aspect the cusp of the 10th house! In addition, transit Saturn will aspect the natal position of 10th lord Sun (Sg). Vimsottari dasa lord Rahu transits in the 10th house. All these factors clearly indicate great rise in career, not of the type witnessed in May 1996, but one that will last for years.

Monthly Chart

Unfortunately, Tajaka system monthly chart for Feb 23-Mar 25, 1998 has Lagna within half a degree from the border of Libra and Scorpio. Based on the rectification we have done, we cannot assume that the birthtime error is less than 2 min. So Lagna in monthly chart could either be Li or Sc. It's too bad that we cannot do a more precise timing of his coronation based on monthly charts! If Lagna in monthly chart is in Sc instead of Li (which is what my sixth sense tells me), then rajya saham lord Mercury and 10th lord Sun have a poorna ithasala (a powerful good yoga) each, with muntha lord Jupiter and all the three aspect 10th from 4th. Based on the three dasa systems, likely period of taking oath is March 5-12, 1998 and the most likely period is March 5-6, 1998. However, there is a big uncertainty in data here and it is too bad that we cannot use this tool reliably in this case.

Conclusion

It is very very likely that Atal Behari Vajpayee will become India's next prime minister in March 1998. It will probably happen before March 12, 1998. It can happen on March 5/6, 1998, though logistically it doesn't sound right (a little too early).

References

(0) The textbook I am currently writing - it is not yet finished.

(1) Textbook of Varshaphal, K.S. Charak, Bharatiya Prachya

(2) Varshphal or Annual Horoscope, Sumeet Chugh, Sagar Publications

(3) Varshaphal or Annual Progressed Horoscope, B.V. Raman, Raman Publications
 
 
All (or some of) these books are available from the website of Astrology Center of America.

Note: Kindly note that I don't get any commission from them and I am not linked to them in any way. If you also distribute these books in USA and want a link to your site to be included here, please let me know and I will be glad to oblige!
 
 
If you enjoyed reading this article, please let me know at nrao@pictel.com! Have a nice day!!